Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027 is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
82¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$793K
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Jun 17, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$34K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$793K
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$793K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027 82¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.