51 · Will the Democratic Party hold
51 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside Will the Democratic Party hold.
Price history
15¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party has exactly 51 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
51
Rank
#4 of 10
Leader
Above 52 19¢
Range
2¢-19¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
KXDSENATESEATS-27-51
Jun 7, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$111K
Family rank
#4 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the Democratic Party hold
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party has exactly 51 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXDSENATESEATS-27-51
Event family
Will the Democratic Party hold.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Above 52 19¢
Current share
0%
Above 52
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-ABOVE52
50
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-50
49
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-49
51
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-51
48
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-48
52
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-52
Below 45
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45
47
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-47
46
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-46
45
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-27-45
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.412
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.