Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 20% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 52
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
50
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Feb 1, 2029
970 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic party hold
Will the Democratic Party hold 51 seats in the 120th Congress?: 51
KXDSENATESEATS-27-51
Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 52
KXDSENATESEATS-27-ABOVE52
Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress?: 49
KXDSENATESEATS-27-49
Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress?: 52
KXDSENATESEATS-27-52
Will the Democratic Party hold 48 seats in the 120th Congress?: 48
KXDSENATESEATS-27-48
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 52
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E52
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 51 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 51
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E51
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 50
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E50
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 49 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 49
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E49
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 48 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 48
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E48
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 47
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E47
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 46 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 46
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E46
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 45
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E45
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: Below 45
KXDSENATESEATS-29-B45
Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: Above 56
KXDSENATESEATS-29-A56
Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 45
KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45
Will the Democratic Party hold 50 seats in the 120th Congress?: 50
KXDSENATESEATS-27-50
Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress?: 47
KXDSENATESEATS-27-47
Will the Democratic Party hold 46 seats in the 120th Congress?: 46
KXDSENATESEATS-27-46
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Democrats will control fewer than 45 Senate seats following the 2026 midterm elections. The current 34% estimate reflects expectations that Democrats will likely retain Senate control or remain competitive, though significant uncertainty remains. The probability is primarily driven by historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the electoral map, which features both Democratic-leaning seats in swing states and Republican-held seats in unfavorable terrain. The resolution depends entirely on the November 2026 midterm election results, which will determine the final Senate composition of the 120th Congress. Notably, related markets show substantial disagreement—Polymarket implies a much higher probability of Democratic underperformance than Kalshi, suggesting traders disagree on either baseline Senate dynamics or specific race outcomes.
- ›Current Senate composition and which seats are up for election in 2026 will mechanically constrain the range of possible outcomes
- ›Historical midterm patterns show the party holding the presidency typically loses Senate seats, but magnitude varies significantly based on economic conditions and approval ratings
- ›The 39-point spread between Polymarket and Kalshi contracts suggests material disagreement on Democratic performance, possibly reflecting different assumptions about candidate quality, turnout, or national environment
- ›Senate race-specific data points like the South Carolina Democratic market priced at 15¢ indicate expected losses in certain red-state Democratic seats
- ›The Democratic-majority prediction market (84¢ on Kalshi) implies traders expect Democrats to hold the chamber overall, making a sub-45-seat outcome a tail risk scenario
What moved the line
- Jun 245↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Above 56↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Below 45↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29last 53% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55last 48% · 1d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 2d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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