Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 18% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 52
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
51
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Feb 1, 2029
899 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic party hold
Will the Democratic Party hold 48 seats in the 120th Congress?: 48
KXDSENATESEATS-27-48
Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 52
KXDSENATESEATS-27-ABOVE52
Will the Democratic Party hold 45 seats in the 120th Congress?: 45
KXDSENATESEATS-27-45
Will the Democratic Party hold 46 seats in the 120th Congress?: 46
KXDSENATESEATS-27-46
Will the Democratic Party hold 51 seats in the 120th Congress?: 51
KXDSENATESEATS-27-51
Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 45
KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45
Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress?: 47
KXDSENATESEATS-27-47
Will the Democratic Party hold 50 seats in the 120th Congress?: 50
KXDSENATESEATS-27-50
Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress?: 52
KXDSENATESEATS-27-52
Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress?: 49
KXDSENATESEATS-27-49
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 52
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E52
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 51 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 51
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E51
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 50
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E50
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 49 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 49
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E49
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 48 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 48
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E48
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 47
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E47
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 46 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 46
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E46
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: 45
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E45
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: Below 45
KXDSENATESEATS-29-B45
Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?: Above 56
KXDSENATESEATS-29-A56
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Democrats will hold fewer than 45 seats in the 120th Congress, which convenes in 2027. The current 17% price suggests markets view this outcome as unlikely but plausible. Democratic seat counts depend primarily on the 2026 midterm election results and any subsequent special elections or party switches before 2027. The market is currently pricing in more optimistic Democratic outcomes, with the leading contract (>52 seats) at 17%. The November 2026 midterm election will be the decisive catalyst, determining the overall Senate composition. Shifts in election forecasts, polling trends, and economic conditions heading into that vote would likely move these probabilities significantly. The wide spread across seat-count contracts (5¢ to 17¢) reflects genuine uncertainty about the final distribution.
- ›2026 midterm election results in November will directly determine Senate composition and seat allocation between parties
- ›Current market pricing shows higher probability mass at 49-52+ Democratic seats, implying baseline expectation of Democratic gains or stability rather than losses
- ›Economic conditions, approval ratings, and campaign momentum between now and November 2026 will influence voter behavior and seat outcomes
- ›Historical midterm patterns and special election dynamics could add or subtract seats between the general election and Congress convening in January 2027
- ›The 45-seat threshold represents roughly current Democratic strength; outcomes below this would require significant Democratic losses relative to today's baseline
What moved the line
- Aug 11Below 45↑11pp11→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 11Above 56↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1148↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1149↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1150↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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