Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027.
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3¢Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $40,011.12·Closes Feb 1, 2027·286d remaining
KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45
7-day price5 snapshots · 28 regime
4¢3¢ current
Apr 173¢Apr 19
Resolution rules
If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.304
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:13:39 PM
SF edge 1.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type political
Edges (1)
NO +1¢thesis — MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM
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sf trade KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45 yes 100