Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market reflects an extremely bearish view of Democratic Senate performance, pricing in only a 3% chance they'll hold exactly 47 seats after the 2026 midterms—a historically poor outcome that would require losses of roughly 20+ seats from their current position.
Analysis
This market reflects an extremely bearish view of Democratic Senate performance, pricing in only a 3% chance they'll hold exactly 47 seats after the 2026 midterms—a historically poor outcome that would require losses of roughly 20+ seats from their current position. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 4,060% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and mispricing risk, with just $100 in 24-hour volume against $16k open interest, suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32 and neutral regime score indicate this is a tail-risk bet rather than a mainstream prediction, making it more suitable for contrarian traders than baseline probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic Party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDSENATESEATS-27-47 yes 100