Margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas at least 9 percentage points
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 65¢ bid, 69¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least.
Price history
70¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
Rank
#3 of 10
Leader
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts 92¢
Range
1¢-92¢
Family volume
$18K
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P9
May 25, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
65¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$621
Family rank
#3 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$18K
Orderbook snapshot
65 / 69¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ken Paxton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate primary election in Texas by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P9
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary election in Texas be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$18K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts 92¢
Current share
10%
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P3
Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P6
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P9
Ken Paxton, 12+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P12
Ken Paxton, 15+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P15
Ken Paxton, 18+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P18
Ken Paxton, 21+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P21
Ken Paxton, 24+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P24
Ken Paxton, 27+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P27
Ken Paxton, 30+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENPKPAX-P30
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.