SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — 3,854 contracts, SF signal on every row.

3,854 live Kalshi contracts (3,883 audited). Median implied probability sits at 41%. 23 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P6 -10c). 8 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMMOV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMMOV",
    "label": "2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 3854,
    "volume24hSum": 5396.14,
    "hasThesisCount": 8
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$5.4K+21%
min $3.5Kmax $16.5K
Breadth33%0.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 01:30 UTC
Jul 13past 7d · UTCJul 20 · 00:23

Live contracts

3,854

Median IY

41¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$5.4K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

8

Top mover

-10¢

KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P6

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — liquidity topography (top 42 of 3,854 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 23.1 → 2502.6%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2502.61262.923.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

Showing top 20 of 3,854

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts61¢
IY 49%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 429%Resid —$2.0K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts54¢
IY 66%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 374%Resid —$760
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts55¢
IY 63%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$305
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 12 percentage points?: Republicans, 12+ pts11¢
IY 626%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$305
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts46¢
IY 91%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$300
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Florida's 22nd District House election be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts33¢
IY 157%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$300
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 9 percentage points?: Republicans, 9+ pts36¢
IY 138%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$199
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 24th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?: Republicans, 12+ pts37¢
IY 132%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$161
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts36¢
IY 138%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 3+ pts46¢
IY 91%Cliff 1Edge +11¢RVol —Resid —$95thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 7th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Republicans, 5+ pts45¢
IY 95%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$90
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Florida be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$84
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Georgia's 12th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?: Republicans, 14+ pts38¢
IY 126%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$80
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 23rd District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Republicans, 8+ pts30¢
IY 181%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$71
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Florida's 22nd District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts23¢
IY 259%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$68
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 5+ pts31¢
IY 172%Cliff 2Edge +9¢RVol —Resid —$60thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts40¢
IY 116%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 416%Resid —$47
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 25 percentage points?: Republicans, 25+ pts48¢
IY 84%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$36
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 5 percentage points?: Republicans, 5+ pts7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$32
3,854 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

From market_changes
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts
55¢45→55 (+10)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
54¢64→54 (-10)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 9 percentage points?: Republicans, 9+ pts
36¢26→36 (+10)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 12 percentage points?: Republicans, 12+ pts
11¢2→11 (+9)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
55¢63→55 (-8)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
69¢63→69 (+6)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?: Democrats, 7+ pts
27¢33→27 (-6)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
49¢55→49 (-6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 Jul 2026 01:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →