SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — 3,875 contracts, SF signal on every row.

3,875 live Kalshi contracts (3,883 audited). Median implied probability sits at 40%. 18 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVR-P3 -75c). 8 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMMOV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMMOV",
    "label": "2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 3875,
    "volume24hSum": 5471.13,
    "hasThesisCount": 8
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$5.5K+86%
min $1.8Kmax $7.2K
Breadth-100%-200.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:15 UTC
Jun 19past 7d · UTCJun 26 · 04:23

Live contracts

3,875

Median IY

40¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$5.5K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

8

Top mover

-75¢

KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVR-P3

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — liquidity topography (top 49 of 3,875 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 10.0 → 1768.2%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d1768.2889.110.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

Showing top 20 of 3,875

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 3+ pts51¢
IY 71%Cliff 1Edge +16¢RVol 209%Resid —$2.2Kthesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts60¢
IY 49%Cliff 2Edge +15¢RVol —Resid —$553thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 9+ pts19¢
IY 314%Cliff 4Edge +9¢RVol —Resid —$455thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts12¢
IY 540%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$350
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 18 percentage points?: Republicans, 18+ pts17¢
IY 360%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$300
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts66¢
IY 38%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$299
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Florida's 9th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?: Democrats, 16+ pts8¢
IY 847%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$117
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts35¢
IY 137%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$110
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Minnesota be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts88¢
IY 10%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$105
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Illinois be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts83¢
IY 15%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$105
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts9¢
IY 745%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Michigan's 11th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?: Democrats, 35+ pts10¢
IY 663%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts9¢
IY 745%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts22¢
IY 261%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$75
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 23rd District House election be at least 14 percentage points?: Republicans, 14+ pts33¢
IY 150%Cliff 2Edge +18¢RVol —Resid —$73thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 23rd District House election be at least 17 percentage points?: Republicans, 17+ pts23¢
IY 247%Cliff 3Edge +16¢RVol —Resid —$48thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points?: James Talarico, 7+ pts5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$41
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Jersey's 7th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts47¢
IY 83%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$37
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 13 percentage points?: Republicans, 13+ pts41¢
IY 106%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$30
3,875 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

From market_changes
7h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
2¢77→2 (-75)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?: Republicans, 9+ pts
1¢42→1 (-41)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts
27¢59→27 (-32)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
9¢18→9 (-9)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 17th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts
4¢11→4 (-7)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
19¢12→19 (+7)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 18 percentage points?: Republicans, 18+ pts
17¢24→17 (-7)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
16¢10→16 (+6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 26 Jun 2026 05:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →