SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — 2,382 contracts, SF signal on every row.

2,382 live Kalshi contracts (3,883 audited). Median implied probability sits at 31%. 3624 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMMOV-MO07R-P25 -97c). 25 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMMOV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMMOV",
    "label": "2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 2382,
    "volume24hSum": 57167.95,
    "hasThesisCount": 25
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$57.2K+99%
min $19.9Kmax $68.9K
Breadth-4%-85.0pp
min -52%max 80%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 08:00 UTC
Sep 18past 7d · UTCSep 25 · 06:23

Live contracts

2,382

Median IY

31¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$57.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

25

Top mover

-97¢

KXMIDTERMMOV-MO07R-P25

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — liquidity topography (top 205 of 2,382 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 4.8 → 2919.0%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d365d2919.01461.94.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

Showing top 20 of 2,382

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points?: Collins, 3+ pts21¢
IY 340%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$6.5K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points?: Jackson, 3+ pts49¢
IY 94%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$4.7K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: James Talarico, 1+ pts48¢
IY 98%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 118%Resid —$4.7K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 5 percentage points?: Jackson, 5+ pts35¢
IY 168%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.1K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?: Sayed, 5+ pts36¢
IY 160%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.0K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?: Sayed, 3+ pts59¢
IY 63%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.6K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: James Talarico, 3+ pts36¢
IY 160%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.5K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 7 percentage points?: Sayed, 7+ pts20¢
IY 361%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.2K
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?: Collins, 1+ pts26¢
IY 257%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 556%Resid —$1.7K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?: Jackson, 1+ pts58¢
IY 65%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.6K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Georgia be at least 1 percentage points?: Bottoms, 1+ pts45¢
IY 110%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.5K
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Graham, 5+ pts62¢
IY 55%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.5K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 15 percentage points?: Flanagan, 15+ pts4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Ohio be at least 3 percentage points?: Acton, 3+ pts37¢
IY 154%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 10 percentage points?: Ossoff, 10+ pts36¢
IY 160%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$994
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 9+ pts4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge -9¢RVol —Resid —$897thesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 8 percentage points?: Moody, 8+ pts44¢
IY 115%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 330%Resid —$888
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Minnesota's 7th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?: Fischbach, 24+ pts15¢
IY 512%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$693
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 12 percentage points?: Ossoff, 12+ pts18¢
IY 411%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$678
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 6 percentage points?: Donalds, 6+ pts40¢
IY 135%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 480%Resid —$674
2,382 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

From market_changes
4h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 7th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?: Republicans, 25+ pts
99¢2→99 (+97)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 7th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?: Republicans, 25+ pts
2¢99→2 (-97)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 5th District House election be at least 39 percentage points?: Clark, 39+ pts
1¢97→1 (-96)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 2nd District House election be at least 22 percentage points?: Huffman, 22+ pts
93¢1→93 (+92)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?: McGovern, 26+ pts
93¢1→93 (+92)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 3rd District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Bera, 5+ pts
93¢1→93 (+92)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 30 percentage points?: Case, 30+ pts
1¢93→1 (-92)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?: McGovern, 26+ pts
1¢93→1 (-92)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Sep 2026 07:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →