SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — 3,874 contracts, SF signal on every row.

3,874 live Kalshi contracts (3,883 audited). Median implied probability sits at 40%. 1811 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMMOV-VA04D-P21 -88c). 15 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMMOV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMMOV",
    "label": "2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 3874,
    "volume24hSum": 22862.2,
    "hasThesisCount": 15
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 10 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$22.9K+105%
min $9.1Kmax $52.5K
Breadth-35%+8.4pp
min -40%max 55%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 04:45 UTC
Aug 3past 7d · UTCAug 10 · 02:23

Live contracts

3,874

Median IY

40¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$22.9K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

15

Top mover

-88¢

KXMIDTERMMOV-VA04D-P21

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets — liquidity topography (top 101 of 3,874 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 3.4 → 2620.0%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2620.01311.73.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

Showing top 20 of 3,874

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 3+ pts30¢
IY 189%Cliff 2Edge -8¢RVol 425%Resid —$3.3Kthesis ◆
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?: Democrats, 10+ pts32¢
IY 172%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: James Talarico, 1+ pts43¢
IY 107%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 160%Resid —$1.1K
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island be at least 31 percentage points?: Democrats, 31+ pts35¢
IY 150%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$990
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts34¢
IY 157%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$858
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 4th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?: Democrats, 33+ pts27¢
IY 219%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$845
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts40¢
IY 122%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$807
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 11th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?: Democrats, 32+ pts80¢
IY 20%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$805
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 4th District House election be at least 36 percentage points?: Democrats, 36+ pts19¢
IY 345%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$786
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Virginia's 6th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts78¢
IY 23%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$725
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 1st District House election be at least 20 percentage points?: Republicans, 20+ pts76¢
IY 26%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$645
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 3rd District House election be at least 35 percentage points?: Democrats, 35+ pts80¢
IY 20%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$605
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Tennessee's 5th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts9¢
IY 819%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$605
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts53¢
IY 72%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$605
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts69¢
IY 36%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$600
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Tennessee's 4th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?: Republicans, 33+ pts20¢
IY 324%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$600
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Kansas be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts25¢
IY 243%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$600
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 11th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?: Democrats, 35+ pts74¢
IY 28%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$500
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 10 percentage points?: Republicans, 10+ pts8¢
IY 932%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$500
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 15th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?: Republicans, 7+ pts75¢
IY 27%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$500
3,874 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

From market_changes
1h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?: Democrats, 21+ pts
5¢93→5 (-88)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
2¢63→2 (-61)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
63¢2→63 (+61)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
61¢2→61 (+59)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
2¢61→2 (-59)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts
55¢1→55 (+54)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
53¢2→53 (+51)
open →
1h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 4th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?: Democrats, 15+ pts
47¢96→47 (-49)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 Aug 2026 04:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →