SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

Kalshi contracts forecasting the margin of victory in 2026 U.S. midterm congressional, gubernatorial, and Senate races. This page is the per-series collection canonical — for the term-structure / analytics view of the same prefix see yield curve analytics.

What this hub contains: every Kalshi contract whose ticker belongs to the KXMIDTERMMOV series. What it does not contain: Polymarket contracts (they do not share the Kalshi series prefix taxonomy) and per-question aggregates (see /odds).

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

Live contracts

3,885

Venue

Kalshi

Refresh

5 min

Top markets in 2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets

Sorted by 24-hour USD volume. Showing top 20 of 3,885 (page caps at 500 for safety).

ContractPrice
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Oregon be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts[K]
49¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 12th District House election be at least 22 percentage points?: Republicans, 22+ pts[K]
40¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Colorado's 3rd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts[K]
41¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts[K]
35¢
Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 3 percentage points?: Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts[K]
34¢
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: James Talarico, 3+ pts[K]
24¢
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts[K]
52¢
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 7th District House election be at least 73 percentage points?: Democrats, 73+ pts[K]
31¢
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 10th District House election be at least 81 percentage points?: Democrats, 81+ pts[K]
13¢
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 7 percentage points?: Democrats, 7+ pts[K]
44¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts[K]
49¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 12th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?: Republicans, 19+ pts[K]
33¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts[K]
40¢
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts[K]
22¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 22 percentage points?: Republicans, 22+ pts[K]
37¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 2 percentage points?: Republicans, 2+ pts[K]
32¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 3rd District House election be at least 28 percentage points?: Republicans, 28+ pts[K]
29¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Michigan's 10th District House election be at least 4 percentage points?: Republicans, 4+ pts[K]
27¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Maryland's 1st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Republicans, 8+ pts[K]
48¢
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Michigan's 10th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts[K]
26¢

Showing top 20 of 3,885 markets in this hub.

Other series

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets(2,456)2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets(604)NFL Team Season Win Total Markets(385)2026 California Primary Election Markets(268)PGA Championship Top-N Finish Markets(211)MLB Team Season Win Total Markets(187)2026 FIFA World Cup Squad Selection Markets(182)League of Legends Map Winner Markets(162)

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 May 2026 19:53:54 GMT.

Term-structure view

Probability vs tenor curve for the same series. Distinct intent — analytics, not navigation. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →