Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 23 percentage points
Leader sits at 91% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Republicans, 26+ pts
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Republicans, 30+ pts
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
549 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Republicans, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P4
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P8
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Florida be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-FLGOVD-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Ohio be at least 9 percentage points?: Republicans, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHGOVR-P9
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IASEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Democrats, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P4
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 26 percentage points?: Republicans, 26+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P26
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Iowa be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IAGOVD-P9
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Republicans, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P6
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Iowa be at least 12 percentage points?: Democrats, 12+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IAGOVD-P12
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVD-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 30 percentage points?: Republicans, 30+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P30
Analysis
This contract measures whether Mississippi Republicans will win their 2026 Senate seat by a margin of 23 percentage points or more. The 92% probability reflects Mississippi's status as a reliably Republican state, where Democratic performance has consistently lagged national trends in recent cycles. The outcome depends primarily on candidate quality, turnout patterns, and whether a competitive Democratic challenger emerges to narrow the margin. The main catalyst is the general election in November 2026, which will determine the final vote totals and calculate the precise margin of victory. Historical precedent matters here: Mississippi's last few Senate elections show Republican margins ranging from 15 to 45 points depending on opponent strength, making the 23-point threshold neither certain nor particularly ambitious by state standards.
- ›Mississippi voted Republican by 16 points in 2020 presidential race; Senate races typically see higher Republican margins in the state
- ›Democratic candidate identity and fundraising capability will significantly affect whether they can close or exceed the 23-point gap
- ›Voter turnout in midterm (non-presidential) election years typically favors Republicans relative to Democratic performance
- ›The 23-point threshold sits between recent competitive Senate races (2014-2020 range) and landslide outcomes, making polling accuracy critical
- ›November 2026 general election results will provide the definitive margin; current prediction markets have limited concrete polling data this far ahead
What moved the line
- Apr 29Democrats, 2+ pts↑25pp27→52¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Democrats, 2+ pts↓19pp52→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Republicans, 4+ pts↑14pp16→30¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Democrats, 6+ pts↓14pp30→16¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Democrats, 4+ pts↓12pp41→29¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.