Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 23 percentage points
Leader sits at 69% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrats, 2+ pts
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
64¢
Democrats, 5+ pts
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$25K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
448 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 2 percentage points?: Republicans, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WIGOVR-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WIGOVD-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 5 percentage points?: Republicans, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WIGOVR-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: James Talarico, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: James Talarico, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 4 percentage points?: Democrats, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WIGOVD-P4
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Nevada be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NVGOVD-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 7 percentage points?: Democrats, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WIGOVD-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Minnesota be at least 14 percentage points?: Democrats, 14+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNGOVD-P14
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Ohio's 1st District House election be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OH01R-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OH07R-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Georgia be at least 5 percentage points?: Republicans, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-GAGOVR-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Ohio be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHGOVD-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Nevada be at least 8 percentage points?: Republicans, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NVGOVR-P8
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Arizona be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-AZGOVD-P2
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 3rd District House election be at least 13 percentage points?: Republicans, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TX03R-P13
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Michigan's 10th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MI10D-P8
Analysis
This contract measures whether Republicans will win Mississippi's 2026 Senate seat by a margin of at least 23 percentage points. The 91% probability reflects Mississippi's strong Republican lean in recent elections and historical voting patterns. The outcome primarily depends on candidate quality, turnout dynamics, and whether any unexpected political shifts occur before Election Day in November 2026. The resolution will be determined by official vote tallies from the Mississippi Secretary of State once ballots are counted. The main uncertainty hinges on whether the Republican nominee can maintain party support and whether Democratic turnout and candidate strength prove stronger or weaker than baseline expectations.
- ›Mississippi voted for the Republican Senate candidate by 15 points in 2018 and 25 points in 2024, establishing a strong recent baseline for margin expectations
- ›The identity and campaign strength of both the Republican and Democratic nominees will directly affect whether the final margin reaches the 23-point threshold
- ›Voter turnout patterns, particularly among Democratic-leaning demographics, could shift the margin by several percentage points either direction
- ›Any significant scandal, retirement, or replacement of the frontrunner candidate between now and November 2026 could materially alter market expectations
- ›Official vote totals will be certified by the Mississippi Secretary of State, providing the definitive margin resolution in late 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 12Republicans, 2+ pts↓29pp53→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Democrats, 2+ pts↑17pp50→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 11Democrats, 14+ pts↓16pp58→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Democrats, 1+ pts↓16pp59→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 11Democrats, 2+ pts↓14pp64→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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