Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 23 percentage points
Leader sits at 88% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrats, 38+ pts
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Democrats, 44+ pts
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
503 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Jersey's 8th District House election be at least 50 percentage points?: Democrats, 50+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NJ08D-P50
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 63 percentage points?: Democrats, 63+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P63
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 51 percentage points?: Democrats, 51+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ03D-P51
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Jersey's 5th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?: Democrats, 10+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NJ05D-P10
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P7
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 23rd District House election be at least 17 percentage points?: Republicans, 17+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TX23R-P17
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OH07R-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Jersey's 8th District House election be at least 44 percentage points?: Democrats, 44+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NJ08D-P44
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Jersey's 8th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?: Democrats, 38+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NJ08D-P38
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 23rd District House election be at least 14 percentage points?: Republicans, 14+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TX23R-P14
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P8
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?: Democrats, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MESEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Illinois be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-ILGOVD-P9
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P9
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points?: Republicans, 12+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVR-P12
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?: Republicans, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P7
Analysis
This contract measures whether Mississippi Republicans will win their 2026 Senate seat by a margin of 23 percentage points or more. The 92% probability reflects Mississippi's status as a reliably Republican state, where Democratic performance has consistently lagged national trends in recent cycles. The outcome depends primarily on candidate quality, turnout patterns, and whether a competitive Democratic challenger emerges to narrow the margin. The main catalyst is the general election in November 2026, which will determine the final vote totals and calculate the precise margin of victory. Historical precedent matters here: Mississippi's last few Senate elections show Republican margins ranging from 15 to 45 points depending on opponent strength, making the 23-point threshold neither certain nor particularly ambitious by state standards.
- ›Mississippi voted Republican by 16 points in 2020 presidential race; Senate races typically see higher Republican margins in the state
- ›Democratic candidate identity and fundraising capability will significantly affect whether they can close or exceed the 23-point gap
- ›Voter turnout in midterm (non-presidential) election years typically favors Republicans relative to Democratic performance
- ›The 23-point threshold sits between recent competitive Senate races (2014-2020 range) and landslide outcomes, making polling accuracy critical
- ›November 2026 general election results will provide the definitive margin; current prediction markets have limited concrete polling data this far ahead
What moved the line
- Jun 18Democrats, 38+ pts↑35pp16→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Democrats, 44+ pts↑33pp8→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Democrats, 10+ pts↓22pp63→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Democrats, 50+ pts↑21pp8→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Democrats, 51+ pts↑17pp48→65¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.