Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 23 percentage points
Leader sits at 84% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 58%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Flanagan, 3+ pts
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
58¢
Sayed, 1+ pts
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
409 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?: Sayed, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: James Talarico, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points?: Sayed, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: James Talarico, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?: James Talarico, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 12 percentage points?: Ossoff, 12+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-GASEND-P12
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?: Hinson, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 3 percentage points?: Flanagan, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNSEND-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Kansas be at least 3 percentage points?: Marshall, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-KSSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 1 percentage points?: Sayed, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Florida's 14th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Castor, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-FL14D-P8
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 7 percentage points?: James Talarico, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 7 percentage points?: Flanagan, 7+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNSEND-P7
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSENR-P5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Minnesota be at least 17 percentage points?: Klobuchar, 17+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNGOVD-P17
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Cooper, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 1st District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Fitzpatrick, 5+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-PA01R-P5
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 3 percentage points?: Collins, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 1st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Fitzpatrick, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-PA01R-P8
Analysis
This contract measures whether Republicans will win Mississippi's 2026 Senate seat by a margin of at least 23 percentage points. The 91% probability reflects Mississippi's strong Republican lean in recent elections and historical voting patterns. The outcome primarily depends on candidate quality, turnout dynamics, and whether any unexpected political shifts occur before Election Day in November 2026. The resolution will be determined by official vote tallies from the Mississippi Secretary of State once ballots are counted. The main uncertainty hinges on whether the Republican nominee can maintain party support and whether Democratic turnout and candidate strength prove stronger or weaker than baseline expectations.
- ›Mississippi voted for the Republican Senate candidate by 15 points in 2018 and 25 points in 2024, establishing a strong recent baseline for margin expectations
- ›The identity and campaign strength of both the Republican and Democratic nominees will directly affect whether the final margin reaches the 23-point threshold
- ›Voter turnout patterns, particularly among Democratic-leaning demographics, could shift the margin by several percentage points either direction
- ›Any significant scandal, retirement, or replacement of the frontrunner candidate between now and November 2026 could materially alter market expectations
- ›Official vote totals will be certified by the Mississippi Secretary of State, providing the definitive margin resolution in late 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 17Klobuchar, 17+ pts↓20pp36→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Fitzpatrick, 8+ pts↓14pp23→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Hinson, 2+ pts↓12pp53→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Flanagan, 7+ pts↓12pp61→49¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Flanagan, 3+ pts↓7pp89→82¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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