Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 21st District House election be at least 22 percentage points
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 21st District House election be at least 22 percentage points is priced at 50¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 99¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
50¢ current
+48¢Contract brief
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 21st District by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 21st District House election be at least 22 percentage points
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-FL21R-P22
May 24, 2026, 10:31 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
99¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 21st District by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-FL21R-P22
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 21st District House election be at least 22 percentage points 50¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.