Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $458,375.69·OI $3,377,810.14·Closes Jun 29, 2028·802d remaining

KXNBA-26-NYK

7-day price6 snapshots · 121 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The New York contract is trading at a steep 5¢ discount to historical win probability, generating an exceptional 1092% implied yield for Yes holders despite the team's modest championship prospects. With $3.38M open interest and $458K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is solid, though the 1¢ spread and neutral regime suggest the market is fairly efficient at this depressed valuation. The 7-day price climb from 3¢ to 4¢ indicates modest accumulation of contrarian bets, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution on tail risk near the 802-day expiration.

Resolution rules

If New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1092.0%

IY (No) 1.9%

Adj IY 410%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1092.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	410%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:00:42 AM

Depth change (1h) -0.0%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 9:53:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA-26-NYK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →