Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

17¢

Bid/Ask 16/17¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $649,779.68·OI $7,165,787.5·Closes Jun 29, 2028·802d remaining

KXNBA-26-SAS

7-day price122 snapshots · 119 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The San Antonio Spurs are priced at a modest 17% probability of winning the 2026 Finals, but the Yes side offers an exceptionally high 238.9% implied yield compared to just 8.7% for No, suggesting significant asymmetric risk-reward that may be attracting speculative interest. With $7.16M in open interest and $650K in 24-hour volume against a tight 1¢ spread, this is a reasonably liquid market, though the 5/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk events could trigger sharp repricing before the June 2028 expiry. The slight downward drift from 17¢ to 16¢ over seven days combined with the neutral regime score suggests the market is consolidating rather than trending decisively.

Resolution rules

If San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 238.9%

IY (No) 8.7%

Adj IY 112%

CRI 5

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.06

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	238.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	112%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 9:42:05 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 9:38:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA-26-SAS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →