NBA Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$328K
7 contracts
Closes
Jul 30, 2029
1100 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: Philadelphia
KXNBA-27-PHI
Cluster 2
Will New York win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will New York win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: New York
KXNBA-27-NYK
Cluster 3
Will Minnesota win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will Minnesota win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: Minnesota
KXNBA-27-MIN
Cluster 4
Will San Antonio win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will San Antonio win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio
KXNBA-27-SAS
Cluster 5
Will Oklahoma City win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will Oklahoma City win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: Oklahoma City
KXNBA-27-OKC
Cluster 6
Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: Denver
KXNBA-27-DEN
Cluster 7
Will Boston win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals
Will Boston win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?: Boston
KXNBA-27-BOS
Analysis
The 12% probability reflects market expectations that Minnesota will win the 2027 NBA Championship. This contract settles after the 2027 Finals conclude, making it sensitive to roster changes, injury developments, and team performance during the 2026-27 season. The Timberwolves' title odds depend primarily on whether they maintain their core roster and avoid significant injuries, balanced against competition from deeper-pocketed franchises. The season begins in October 2026 and concludes with the Finals in June 2027, during which playoff performance and trades will clarify Minnesota's championship viability. Currently, San Antonio trades higher at 21 cents, suggesting market skepticism about Minnesota's near-term prospects relative to other contenders.
- ›Minnesota's roster composition heading into October 2026—trades or free-agent departures would directly impact championship probability
- ›Injury status of key players during the 2026-27 regular season, particularly those affecting playoff rotation depth
- ›2026-27 regular season win-loss record and playoff seeding, which determine matchup difficulty and Finals path
- ›Comparative strength of competing rosters, especially San Antonio (21¢) and other franchises with higher implied probabilities
- ›Transaction activity and salary-cap constraints affecting Minnesota's ability to acquire or retain championship-caliber talent through the deadline
What moved the line
- Jul 24Philadelphia↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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