NBA Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2.2M
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 29, 2028
753 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio
KXNBA-26-SAS
Cluster 2
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: New York
KXNBA-26-NYK
Analysis
This 15% probability reflects the aggregate market assessment that any single NBA team will win the 2026 championship. The market shows significant concentration around Oklahoma City at 52 cents, indicating strong differentiation between contenders rather than uniform uncertainty. The current pricing is driven by regular-season performance through late April 2026, playoff seeding positioning, and historical roster composition. The NBA Finals in June 2026 will definitively resolve this contract, with the outcome determined by playoff matchups and performance across four rounds of competition. Market movements between now and the Finals will reflect injury reports, playoff performance, and updated win probability as teams advance or are eliminated from contention.
- ›Oklahoma City priced at 52¢ commands 77% of the aggregated contracts' implied probability, suggesting dominant market consensus on championship favorites among tracked teams
- ›New York and Denver both priced at 3¢ (lowest in tracked contracts) despite historical championship contention status, indicating market skepticism about 2026 roster construction or season trajectory
- ›San Antonio's 16¢ relative to Boston's 14¢ shows meaningful disagreement within the market about mid-tier contenders, with 24h volume ($436k vs $215k) suggesting higher conviction on San Antonio
- ›The concentration of volume in top three contracts ($437k, $436k, $238k) versus remaining two ($215k, $135k) indicates market focus clustering on specific narrative teams
- ›Remaining ~25% of probability across all other NBA teams not shown in top five contracts suggests either depth of competition or market inefficiency in pricing non-favorites
What moved the line
- Jun 6San Antonio↓22pp46→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6New York↑21pp54→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1San Antonio↑20pp44→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4San Antonio↓14pp64→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5New York↑11pp43→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In nba
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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