Will Greg win the TNC x FST 1v1 between Greg and HoodieQel
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+4pp
47h ago
24h volume
$1.2M
7 contracts
Closes
Jun 29, 2028
782 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball
Cluster 2
Will the Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: Detroit
KXNBA-26-DET
Cluster 3
Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: Oklahoma City
KXNBA-26-OKC
Cluster 4
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio
KXNBA-26-SAS
Cluster 5
Will Greg Rousseau win the Defensive Player of the Year
Will Greg Rousseau win the Defensive Player of the Year?: Greg Rousseau
KXNFLDPOTY-27-GROU
Cluster 6
Will Gregory Soto win NL Reliever of the Year
Will Gregory Soto win NL Reliever of the Year?: Gregory Soto
KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-GSOT
Analysis
This probability indicates a 19% chance that Greg defeats HoodieQel in a planned 1v1 competition organized by TNC and FST. The low probability suggests HoodieQel is favored based on either previous head-to-head results, relative skill assessments, or historical performance data available to market participants. The outcome will be determined by the actual match result, which would depend on factors such as both competitors' recent form, any rule specifications affecting gameplay, and performance conditions at the time of competition. Market movement could shift if new information emerges about either competitor's preparation, injuries, or changes in tournament format.
- ›Historical head-to-head record between Greg and HoodieQel in similar competitions or formats
- ›Recent performance metrics or rankings for both competitors relative to their typical competition level
- ›Specific tournament or match rules that may favor one competitor's playstyle over the other
- ›Any publicly disclosed information about either competitor's current training status or recent results
- ›Scheduled date and venue for the match, as conditions may advantage particular competitors
What moved the line
- May 6New York↑11pp36→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York↑9pp27→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 6San Antonio↓6pp22→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Oklahoma City↑4pp57→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 2New York↑4pp23→27¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.