SimpleFunctions
7 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jun 29, 2028 · 782d4pp · 47h

Will Greg win the TNC x FST 1v1 between Greg and HoodieQel

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

23%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

23%

7 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

+4pp

47h ago

24h volume

$1.2M

7 contracts

Closes

Jun 29, 2028

782 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 28% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 28% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 7 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 7 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball

2 contracts$514K

Cluster 2

Will the Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals

1 contract$261K

Cluster 3

Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals

1 contract$241K

Cluster 4

Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals

1 contract$217K

Cluster 5

Will Greg Rousseau win the Defensive Player of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Gregory Soto win NL Reliever of the Year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability indicates a 19% chance that Greg defeats HoodieQel in a planned 1v1 competition organized by TNC and FST. The low probability suggests HoodieQel is favored based on either previous head-to-head results, relative skill assessments, or historical performance data available to market participants. The outcome will be determined by the actual match result, which would depend on factors such as both competitors' recent form, any rule specifications affecting gameplay, and performance conditions at the time of competition. Market movement could shift if new information emerges about either competitor's preparation, injuries, or changes in tournament format.

  • Historical head-to-head record between Greg and HoodieQel in similar competitions or formats
  • Recent performance metrics or rankings for both competitors relative to their typical competition level
  • Specific tournament or match rules that may favor one competitor's playstyle over the other
  • Any publicly disclosed information about either competitor's current training status or recent results
  • Scheduled date and venue for the match, as conditions may advantage particular competitors

What moved the line

  • May 6New York11pp3647¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3New York9pp2736¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6San Antonio6pp2216¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Oklahoma City4pp5761¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2New York4pp2327¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.