Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
This contract is priced at 28¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$1.6M
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x80ebf0a8…1139
Price history
28¢ current
+7¢Orderbook snapshot
27 / 28¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x80ebf0a8…1139
Event family
This market.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1.6M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026 28¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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