Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$38K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
0x80ebf0…1139
Analysis
This market estimates a 28% probability that the U.S. military will conduct an invasion of Cuba during 2026. The probability reflects current geopolitical conditions, U.S.-Cuba relations, and perceived likelihood of military escalation. Factors pushing the probability higher include ongoing hemispheric tensions and historical precedent of U.S. intervention in the region. Factors working against it include the diplomatic costs of invasion, Cuba's lack of immediate strategic threat to U.S. territory, and international legal constraints. The uncertainty will likely resolve through either direct military action or the completion of 2026 without invasion occurring. Key monitoring points include statements from U.S. political leadership, Cuban government actions, and developments in broader Caribbean security dynamics.
- ›Current U.S.-Cuba diplomatic relations status and any official policy statements regarding military options
- ›Presence or absence of a specific triggering incident (terrorism, hostile action, or military provocation attributed to Cuba)
- ›Statements and policy positions from U.S. leadership regarding intervention in the Western Hemisphere
- ›Activity levels at U.S. military bases and overseas deployment announcements relevant to Caribbean operations
- ›Trading volume and price movement in related contracts (U.S. invasion of Latin America broadly, Iran invasion) as indicator of broader conflict expectations
What moved the line
- Apr 28Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?↓6pp30→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?↑5pp23→28¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.