Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
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7¢Bid/Ask 6/7¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $233.028·OI $115,271.283·Closes Dec 31, 2026·247d remaining
0xe723e5e63c14e387c03cb37b11d79fa88f46a302503175b56cd9f68ecbc00a20
7-day price18 snapshots · 55 regime
10¢7¢ current
Apr 87¢Apr 26
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/28/2026, 7:03:42 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 6:53:26 AM
Trade
View on polymarket →
sf trade 0xe723e5e63c14e387c03cb37b11d79fa88f46a302503175b56cd9f68ecbc00a20 yes 100