Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$608K
Identifier
0x3285179b...58f4
Jun 19, 2026, 1:13 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$608K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3285179b…58f4
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$608K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.