Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$186.4M
Best sibling
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April 0¢
Ticker
0x3285179b…58f4
Price history
8¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
7 / 8¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3285179b…58f4
Event family
Iran / Hormuz crisis.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$186.4M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
June 30 39¢
Current share
0%
December 31
polymarket · 0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April
polymarket · 0x924a2942747dd75703321a7c8d809c68f6a514c3b0f2a2e64274e02310634669
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30
polymarket · 0x9352c559e9648ab4cab236087b64ca85c5b7123a4c7d9d7d4efde4a39c18056f
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner : Iran
polymarket · 0x84edef36bded182da6a395ac6c785dba8f3e09b6c5ad041385b2042536cbef25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027
polymarket · 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027
polymarket · 0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31
polymarket · 0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2
May 31
polymarket · 0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089
May 31
polymarket · 0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6f69f122216c073dd6987d08253fc07bbcc168fa5b81d55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May
polymarket · 0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c
May 31
polymarket · 0xa1d97efb8a19de58d995edf58b882c4f99ef356c8a564af8daf888a7610edea1
June 30
polymarket · 0x43272c02b8407ed3f8d5b04fb4cb132d7a59c5df6ecc423afcf66f1c778d1887
June 30
polymarket · 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7
December 31
polymarket · 0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607
May 15
polymarket · 0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7
June 30
polymarket · 0x6897736d782ce70f47126dfcec6669073f563d6e757e60bc61c0367370d6f73e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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