Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31
0x328517…58f4
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the U.S. government formally issues a declaration of war against Iran by an unspecified end date. At 8%, the market reflects skepticism about such an extreme escalation, despite current tensions. The level is driven primarily by two competing dynamics: regional instability and ongoing diplomatic channels remain active, while military posturing and rhetoric from various parties create downside risk. The key catalyst for repricing would be a major military incident—such as an Iranian attack on U.S. forces or allies, or verified credible intelligence of imminent Iranian action—that creates pressure for immediate congressional action. Without such a triggering event, inertia favors continued containment strategies over formal war declarations, which require explicit congressional authorization and represent a significant political commitment.
- ›Current U.S. military presence in the Middle East and stated deterrence posture against Iranian regional activities
- ›Status of ongoing diplomatic negotiations or sanctions regimes—whether escalating or stabilizing
- ›Iranian military capabilities and recent provocative actions or statements indicating intent to escalate
- ›Congressional appetite for war authorization given historical reluctance post-2003 Iraq invasion
- ›Regional proxy activities by Iranian-backed forces and potential for uncontrolled escalation from incidents
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 0d
- Iran coup attempt by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Who will enter Iran by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...last 8% · 0d
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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