SimpleFunctions

WTI crude oil settlement price between 103.00 and 103.99 USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026

$103.00 to $103.99 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 15 inside Will the WTI crude oil settlement price.

Price history

4¢ current

0¢5¢
May 24, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(July 2026 contract) on May 29, 2026 is between 103.00-103.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

$103.00 to $103.99

Rank

#9 of 15

Leader

Below $91.00 44¢

Range

3¢-44¢

Family volume

$14K

Identifier

KXWTIW-26MAY2914-B103.50

May 24, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 12m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 12m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$230

Family rank

#9 of 15

15 outcomes · Will the WTI crude oil settlement price

Closes

May 29, 2026

Family volume

$14K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 4¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1
3¢963
2¢12K
AskSize
4¢406
5¢511
7¢20
8¢19
9¢58

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(July 2026 contract) on May 29, 2026 is between 103.00-103.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 29, 2026

Identifier

KXWTIW-26MAY2914-B103.50

SF Signal
SF Index
33335.00
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

32

Overround

-0.1%

LAS

0.33

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

32
Overround
-0.1%
LAS
0.33

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmacro

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

In-depth analysis of Venezuela oil production and PDVSA through 2026, U.S. sanctions and Chevron licenses, China/Russia oil-for-loans, infrastructure constraints, and how prediction markets are pricing future Venezuelan supply.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Bloggeopolitics

US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock

A deep-dive into US oil sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia heading into 2026—covering Trump 2.0 policy, secondary sanctions, shadow fleets, global oil balances, European energy security, India/China behavior, and how prediction markets are pricing the next shock.

Opinionanalysis

Why Prediction Market Orderbooks Are Nothing Like Stock Orderbooks

Deep analysis of prediction market orderbook microstructure. How binary settlement, belief distributions, and cross-strike coherence create unique trading signals on Kalshi.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.