Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The Yes side shows an extreme 2115.9% implied yield at just 23¢, indicating severe underpricing relative to historical Atlantic hurricane frequency, though this must be tempered by the modest $312 open interest and illiquid $6 daily volume.
Analysis
The Yes side shows an extreme 2115.9% implied yield at just 23¢, indicating severe underpricing relative to historical Atlantic hurricane frequency, though this must be tempered by the modest $312 open interest and illiquid $6 daily volume. The market has collapsed dramatically over seven days from 14¢ to 7¢ before recovering to current levels, suggesting recent sentiment shift or data-driven repricing rather than stable consensus. With 229 days until resolution and a wide 14¢ spread, this thin market may not efficiently reflect the ~40% historical probability of exceeding 5 major hurricanes in an active season.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 5 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T5 yes 100