Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026
Leader sits at 75% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Above 0
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$526
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
157 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in June 2026?: Above 0
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26JUN30-T0
Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 3
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T3
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 2
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T2
Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 4
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4
Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in June 2026?: Above 6
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26JUN30-T6
Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in June 2026?: Above 5
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26JUN30-T5
Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in June 2026?: Above 1
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26JUN30-T1
Will there be more than 7 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 7
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T7
Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 6
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T6
Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 5
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T5
Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 1
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T1
Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 0
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T0
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that 2026 will produce at least three Atlantic hurricanes reaching major (Category 3+) intensity. The 85% confidence level sits well above historical averages, driven by Atlantic sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions entering the season. The related contracts show meaningful uncertainty at the extremes: only 42% probability for four-plus major hurricanes and 16% for six-plus, suggesting consensus around a moderately active season rather than an exceptional one. The Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November, with peak activity typically in August-September. The National Hurricane Center's official seasonal forecast, released in early June, will provide the first major update to current market pricing and incorporate the latest climate model data.
- ›Atlantic sea surface temperatures relative to climatological baseline during boreal summer 2026
- ›Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength and warm-water anomalies in development zones
- ›El Niño / La Niña / neutral ENSO conditions, which suppress or enhance Atlantic hurricane formation
- ›Saharan dust patterns and African tropical wave genesis frequency during peak season months
- ›Actual storm track and intensity data from June-November 2026 will steadily resolve uncertainty toward season end
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 0↓19pp92→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Above 2↓16pp63→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 1↓12pp81→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Above 0↑10pp69→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 0↓9pp79→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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