Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Above 1
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
100 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 2
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T2
Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 4
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4
Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 3
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T3
Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 1
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T1
Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 0
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T0
Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 6
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T6
Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 5
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T5
Analysis
This market is pricing a 34% chance that 2026 will produce more than two major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The current forecast reflects mid-season conditions with the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-November) still ahead. The probability is primarily driven by long-term climate patterns, current sea-surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions that either favor or suppress hurricane formation. The National Hurricane Center's seasonal forecasts and actual storm counts through September will serve as key data points that could shift this probability significantly higher or lower as the season progresses.
- ›Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are the primary physical constraint on hurricane intensity; warmer waters favor development of stronger systems
- ›The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and other large-scale climate indices influence multi-year trends; an active phase typically correlates with more major hurricanes
- ›Wind shear patterns over the Atlantic basin determine whether developing storms can intensify; strong upper-level winds suppress development while weak shear allows intensification
- ›Major hurricanes require sustained energy transfer from warm ocean water; August-November activity typically accounts for 60-70% of the season's major hurricane count
- ›Seasonal hurricane forecasts from NOAA and peer institutions are updated monthly and incorporate real-time atmospheric data, providing near-term predictive skill for remaining season outcomes
What moved the line
- Aug 17Above 2↓12pp29→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 0↓10pp75→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 1↓6pp56→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 1↓6pp51→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 3↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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