Prediction Market / Predictive Market · Will Trump say "
Prediction Market / Predictive Market is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
99¢ current
+93¢Contract brief
If Prediction Market / Predictive Market, or a plural or possessive form of Prediction Market / Predictive Market, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Prediction Market / Predictive Market 99¢
Range
2¢-99¢
Family volume
$77K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-PRED
May 28, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
99¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$77K
Orderbook snapshot
99 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Prediction Market / Predictive Market, or a plural or possessive form of Prediction Market / Predictive Market, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-PRED
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$77K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Prediction Market / Predictive Market 99¢
Current share
9%
Autism
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-AUTI
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-BARA
Prediction Market / Predictive Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-PRED
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-HOTT
Tulsi / Gabbard
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-TULS
Uranium
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-URAN
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-CRYP
Landslide
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-LAND
Transgender
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-TRAN
Ballroom
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-BALL
Mutilation / Mutilization
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MUTI
Melania
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MELA
Sleepy Joe
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-SLEE
Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-NEWS
Golden Dome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-GOLD
Mog / Mogged / Mogging
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01-MOG
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.