Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jul 1, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2736% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 85% on the No side, suggesting the 18¢ price may undervalue Trump's likelihood of using this specific phrase given his rhetorical patterns and 76 days of remaining time.

█████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
23¢
Bid/Ask 19/23¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $57.31·OI $2,058.31·Closes Jul 1, 2026·68d remaining
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-COMR
7-day price578 snapshots · 16 regime
32¢19¢ current
Apr 86¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2736% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 85% on the No side, suggesting the 18¢ price may undervalue Trump's likelihood of using this specific phrase given his rhetorical patterns and 76 days of remaining time. The realized volatility of 3178% and cliff risk index of 6 indicate this is a highly speculative contract with sharp price swings, while the thin $1,393.51 open interest and $373.65 daily volume signal low liquidity that could amplify moves if new information emerges. The neutral regime score and modest 7-day price stability (16¢ to 17¢) suggest the market hasn't yet priced in a major catalyst, though the 2.4 info arrivals per hour indicate active monitoring of Trump's statements.

Resolution rules

If Comrade Kamala, or a plural or possessive form of Comrade Kamala, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2286.1%
IY (No) 125.8%
Adj IY 1143%
CRI 4
Overround 2.7%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2286.1%
IY (No)125.8%
Adj IY1143%
CRI4
Overround2.7%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/24/2026, 12:25:26 PM
Observability lowEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 12:23:43 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-COMR yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions