Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2736% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 85% on the No side, suggesting the 18¢ price may undervalue Trump's likelihood of using this specific phrase given his rhetorical patterns and 76 days of remaining time.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2736% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 85% on the No side, suggesting the 18¢ price may undervalue Trump's likelihood of using this specific phrase given his rhetorical patterns and 76 days of remaining time. The realized volatility of 3178% and cliff risk index of 6 indicate this is a highly speculative contract with sharp price swings, while the thin $1,393.51 open interest and $373.65 daily volume signal low liquidity that could amplify moves if new information emerges. The neutral regime score and modest 7-day price stability (16¢ to 17¢) suggest the market hasn't yet priced in a major catalyst, though the 2.4 info arrivals per hour indicate active monitoring of Trump's statements.
Resolution rules
If Comrade Kamala, or a plural or possessive form of Comrade Kamala, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-COMR yes 100