Will Trump say "Crazy Bernie" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Trump say "Crazy Bernie" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The Yes contract's extreme 1027% implied yield signals severe mispricing or tail-risk premium, particularly given Trump's documented history of using this specific epithet and 76 days of remaining time for potential occurrence.
Analysis
The Yes contract's extreme 1027% implied yield signals severe mispricing or tail-risk premium, particularly given Trump's documented history of using this specific epithet and 76 days of remaining time for potential occurrence. The 6-cent spread and modest $35.86 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that may be constraining price discovery, while the sharp 5-cent decline over seven days (37¢ to 32¢) indicates recent bearish repricing despite the outsized yield. The 2.40 volatility ratio and 951% realized volatility point to significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime and 1.8 info arrivals per hour suggest no imminent catalyst is driving the market's current positioning.
Resolution rules
If Crazy Bernie, or a plural or possessive form of Crazy Bernie, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-CRAZ yes 100