Will Trump say "Fat Slob" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Trump say "Fat Slob" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2059% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 19¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of Trump using this specific phrase within 76 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2059% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 19¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of Trump using this specific phrase within 76 days. The massive 18¢ spread and thin $168.31 open interest indicate severe liquidity constraints, making the price potentially unreliable despite the sharp 280% price surge over seven days (5¢ to 19¢). The elevated realized volatility of 1007% and high cliff risk index of 4 suggest this is a highly speculative micro-market prone to sharp reversals, warranting caution despite the apparent arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Fat Slob, or a plural or possessive form of Fat Slob, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-FAT yes 100