Palestine / Palestinian · Will Trump say "
Palestine / Palestinian is priced at 63¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 46¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 18¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 15 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
63¢ current
+57¢Contract brief
If Palestine / Palestinian, or a plural or possessive form of Palestine / Palestinian, is stated by Donald Trump after June 1st at 8:00am ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Palestine / Palestinian
Rank
#7 of 15
Leader
DEI / Woke 99¢
Range
5¢-99¢
Family volume
$41K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-PALE
Jun 17, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
18¢
24h volume
$95
Family rank
#7 of 15
15 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$41K
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Palestine / Palestinian, or a plural or possessive form of Palestine / Palestinian, is stated by Donald Trump after June 1st at 8:00am ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-PALE
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$41K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
DEI / Woke 99¢
Current share
0%
DEI / Woke
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-DEI
Greenland
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-GREE
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-CRYP
Autism
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-AUTI
American Dream
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-AMER
Kimmel
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-KIMM
Palestine / Palestinian
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-PALE
Fat shot / Ozempic
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-FAT
UFO / UAP
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-UFO
Pelosi
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-PELO
Nine War / Ninth War
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-NINE
Moscow
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-MOSC
Make Iran Great Again
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-MAKE
Goat
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-GOAT
Epstein Island
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-EPSTI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.