Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026
Leader sits at 5% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
UFO / UAP
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Autism
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Aug 1, 2026?: UFO / UAP
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-UFO
Will Trump say "Autism" before Aug 1, 2026?: Autism
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-AUTI
Will Trump say "Pelosi" before Aug 1, 2026?: Pelosi
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-PELO
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that Donald Trump will publicly say the phrase 'Make Iran Great Again' before May 1, 2026. The 61% probability reflects traders' assessment that Trump is more likely than not to use this slogan in speeches, statements, or media appearances within the next 11 months. The current level is driven by Trump's documented pattern of using similar catchphrase variations tied to policy positions, balanced against the specificity of this exact phrase and its relatively niche policy application compared to his more frequent talking points. The main factors pushing probability up include increased media coverage of Iran policy and Trump's public schedule; factors pushing it down include the phrase's limited strategic or rhetorical advantage compared to his typical messaging patterns. Any significant escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions or Trump campaign events focused on foreign policy would likely shift expectations upward. The contracts resolve based on verifiable public statements through May 1, 2026.
- ›Trump's historical frequency of using 'Make [X] Great Again' formulations and how often they relate to specific foreign policy targets
- ›The number and prominence of Trump public events, rallies, or media appearances scheduled between now and May 2026
- ›Current geopolitical tensions with Iran and whether U.S.-Iran relations become a central campaign or policy messaging focus
- ›Baseline rate of Trump statements containing precise policy-linked catchphrases versus his more general talking points
- ›Definition and verification criteria for what counts as 'saying' the phrase — whether written statements, quoted speech, or only direct spoken utterances qualify
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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