Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026
Leader sits at 69% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Greenland
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
62¢
Autism
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
14 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Will Trump say "Greenland" before Jul 1, 2026?: Greenland
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-GREE
Will Trump say "Moscow" before Jul 1, 2026?: Moscow
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-MOSC
Will Trump say "Epstein Island" before Jul 1, 2026?: Epstein Island
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-EPSTI
Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Jul 1, 2026?: UFO / UAP
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-UFO
Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before Jul 1, 2026?: Make Iran Great Again
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-MAKE
Will Trump say "Pelosi" before Jul 1, 2026?: Pelosi
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-PELO
Will Trump say "American Dream" before Jul 1, 2026?: American Dream
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-AMER
Will Trump say "Kimmel" before Jul 1, 2026?: Kimmel
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-KIMM
Will Trump say "Palestine / Palestinian" before Jul 1, 2026?: Palestine / Palestinian
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-PALE
Will Trump say "Fat shot / Ozempic" before Jul 1, 2026?: Fat shot / Ozempic
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-FAT
Will Trump say "Autism" before Jul 1, 2026?: Autism
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-AUTI
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" before Jul 1, 2026?: Crypto / Bitcoin
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-CRYP
Will Trump say "Nine War / Ninth War" before Jul 1, 2026?: Nine War / Ninth War
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-NINE
Will Trump say "Goat" before Jul 1, 2026?: Goat
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUL01-GOAT
What moved the line
- Jun 17Fat shot / Ozempic↓20pp49→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Goat↓19pp43→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Palestine / Palestinian↑16pp36→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Greenland↑14pp33→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Goat↓14pp37→23¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 48% · 0d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 1d
- IR Iran vs. New Zealandlast 55% · 1d
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027last 96% · 2d
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30last 83% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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