Will Trump say "Piggy" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Trump say "Piggy" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 2536% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 92% on No, suggesting traders view a Trump "Piggy" utterance as highly unlikely but potentially high-impact if it occurs.
Analysis
This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 2536% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 92% on No, suggesting traders view a Trump "Piggy" utterance as highly unlikely but potentially high-impact if it occurs. The 7-day price surge from 5¢ to 16¢ (220% move) combined with 1611% realized volatility and a 2.72 vol ratio indicates recent information arrival or sentiment shift, though the $34.72 daily volume and $416.75 open interest reveal thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the 76-day expiry approaches. The 8¢ spread and cliff risk index of 5 suggest meaningful execution friction and tail-risk concentration, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid betting market.
Resolution rules
If Piggy, or a plural or possessive form of Piggy, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-PIGG yes 100