Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will United States retail sales MoM for April 2026 be above 0.4%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 14, 2026. 17 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will United States retail sales MoM for April 2026 be above 0.4%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4412.9% and 1070.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will United States retail sales MoM for April 2026 be above 0.4%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4412.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1070.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1805%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Will United States retail sales MoM for April 2026 be above 0.4%?

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