Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.70M

30-day trend

Analysis

The market assigns a 92% probability that US existing home sales in July 2026 will exceed 3.80 million units, indicating traders expect sales to remain above this threshold. Existing home sales reflect housing market liquidity and consumer purchasing power; sustained sales above 3.80M would suggest housing demand has stabilized despite broader economic conditions. The primary drivers are mortgage rate levels and inventory availability—lower rates and adequate supply tend to support transactions, while rate spikes or inventory constraints dampen sales. The resolution depends on the National Association of Realtors' official July 2026 existing home sales report, typically released in late August. Market pricing shows steep probability drops at higher thresholds (65% at 4.00M, 42% at 4.10M), reflecting trader skepticism about significantly elevated sales volumes.

• ›NAR existing home sales data for July 2026 will be released in late August, providing the definitive figure needed to resolve the contract
• ›Mortgage rates in July 2026 will influence refinancing activity and buyer incentives; rates above 7% have historically correlated with weaker existing sales volumes
• ›Inventory levels heading into summer typically peak in late June-July; higher inventory generally supports higher transaction volumes
• ›Year-over-year sales comparisons matter: if July 2025 existing sales were weak, even modest increases could push 2026 above 3.80M
• ›Fed policy decisions and inflation data through July 2026 will shape rate expectations, directly affecting borrowing conditions for home purchases

What moved the line

• Aug 18Above 3.90M↓20pp68→48¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Above 4.00M↓19pp44→25¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Above 4.10M↓17pp25→8¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 4.00M↑16pp28→44¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 4.10M↑14pp13→27¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds