Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125 billion?
This contract is priced at 85¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 9¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
6
Family volume
$25
Best sibling
Above $250 billion 34¢
Ticker
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125
Market snapshot
Above $125 billion in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125 billion?. The displayed quote is 85¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $172. In the Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $ family, this outcome ranks #3 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
Above $125 billion
Family rank
#3 of 6
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
85¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jun 1, 2027
Reported volume
$172
Family context
6 outcomes · Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $
Quote range
34¢-90¢
Family leader
Above $100 billion 90¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 7m ago
Venue identifier: KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125. Family volume: $25.
Price history
85¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 94¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $125 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125
Event family
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$25
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Above $100 billion 90¢
Current share
0%
Above $125 billion
kalshi · KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125
Above $250 billion
kalshi · KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T250
Above $100 billion
kalshi · KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T100
Above $80 billion
kalshi · KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T80
Above $150 billion
kalshi · KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T150
Above $200 billion
kalshi · KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T200
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 85% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.