Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200 billion
Leader sits at 90% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $100 billion
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above $80 billion
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$25
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
388 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $250 billion?: Above $250 billion
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T250
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100 billion?: Above $100 billion
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T100
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200 billion?: Above $200 billion
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T200
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150 billion?: Above $150 billion
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T150
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125 billion?: Above $125 billion
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125
Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80 billion?: Above $80 billion
KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T80
Analysis
The 92% probability reflects market expectations that US tariff revenue in 2026 will exceed $200 billion. This estimate reflects the current tariff policy environment and import volumes. The probability is driven primarily by the existing tariff regime in place and projected trade volumes; it would decline if tariff rates were reduced or imports fell unexpectedly, and would rise if tariffs were increased or enforced more broadly. The resolution hinges on final 2026 US Customs revenue data, typically released by the Treasury Department in early 2027, though preliminary quarterly figures throughout 2026 will provide incremental signals about whether collections are tracking toward the threshold. Current geopolitical tensions and supply-chain dynamics could shift import patterns before year-end.
- ›Existing US tariff rates as of May 2026 and whether they remain in effect through December without material reductions
- ›Import volume trends through mid-2026; significant drops in imports would lower total tariff revenue regardless of rate levels
- ›Cumulative tariff collections reported through Q3 2026; if collections already exceed ~$150 billion by September, the threshold becomes highly probable
- ›Policy changes such as tariff exemptions, negotiations, or rate adjustments announced between May and December 2026
- ›Enforcement intensity and duty collection by US Customs; variation in assessment or payment timing can affect annual totals
What moved the line
- May 2Above $200 billion↓5pp58→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above $200 billion↓3pp53→50¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Aprillast 97% · 0d
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München - More Marketslast 60% · 0d
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern Münchenlast 60% · 0d
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets: FC Bayern München (-2.5)last 60% · 0d
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Platelast 49% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.