What is the current probability for "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.40%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 30, 2026. 53 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.40%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 16674.6% and 28.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.40%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

KalshiJun 30, 202653 days left

Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.40%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 9¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 7¢ spread.

Open on Kalshi JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

9¢

$0 volume

42.1 LAS liquidity

0% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

Best sibling

Above 4.40% 90¢

Ticker

KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.40

Market snapshot

Above 5.40% in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.40%?. The displayed quote is 9¢ from the visible bid/ask midpoint because the last venue price is zero. In the Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above family, this outcome ranks #16 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC.

Outcome

Above 5.40%

Family rank

#16 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

9¢

Quote source

Bid/ask midpoint

Timing

Listed until Jun 30, 2026

Reported volume

—

Family context

16 outcomes · Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above

Quote range

5¢-94¢

Family leader

Above 4.00% 94¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 10m ago

Venue identifier: KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.40. Family volume: $3.

Price history

9¢ current

+7¢

25¢50¢75¢100¢

May 7, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 12¢

Kalshi

7¢ spread

BidSize

100¢951

5¢16

3¢162

2¢250

AskSize

12¢1

20¢70

23¢300

54¢45

55¢513

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.40

Event family

Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

Outcomes

Highest price

Above 4.00% 94¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Above 5.40%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.40

5¢$0$03.5

Above 4.40%

kalshi · KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.40

90¢$2$20.1