Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%
Leader sits at 94% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.00%
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 4.10%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
53 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?: Above 4.40%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.40
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%?: Above 4.30%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.30
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.40%?: Above 5.40%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.40
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.30%?: Above 5.30%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.30
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.20%?: Above 5.20%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.20
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.10%?: Above 5.10%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.10
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.00
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.90%?: Above 4.90%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.90
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.80%?: Above 4.80%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.80
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.70%?: Above 4.70%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.70
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?: Above 4.60%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.60
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.50%?: Above 4.50%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.50
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.20
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%?: Above 4.10%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.10
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.00
What moved the line
- May 8Above 4.90%↑34pp11→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Above 5.00%↑29pp13→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 5.00%↑10pp3→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 4.60%↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Above 4.80%↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.