Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%
Leader sits at 90% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.60%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
Above 5.00%
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$216
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UST Par Yield Curve (
Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.90%?: Above 4.90%
KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.90
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%?: Above 4.30%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.30
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.50%?: Above 4.50%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.50
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T5.00
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%?: Above 4.60%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.60
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%?: Above 4.40%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.40
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.20
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%?: Above 4.10%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.10
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T4.00
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.90%?: Above 3.90%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T3.90
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%?: Above 3.80%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T3.80
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%?: Above 3.70%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T3.70
Will UST Par Yield Curve (10Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%?: Above 3.60%
KXUSTYLD-10Y26JUN30-T3.60
Analysis
This market assesses whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will close Q2 2026 (ending June 30) above 4.00%. At 97%, traders view this threshold as highly likely, implying near-consensus that long-term rates will not rise further or may decline from current levels. The 30-year yield is sensitive to inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and global demand for safe assets. The final week of June will be decisive, particularly the June 25 PCE inflation report and any Fed signals about rates. Recent trading on related contracts shows traders distinguish sharply between 30-year and 2-year outcomes—betting the 30-year stays moderate while 2-year rates could climb higher—suggesting expectations of a relatively flat or inverted curve shape.
- ›30-year yields have typically traded 4.00–4.50% in recent months; market consensus reflects belief this range persists through June 30
- ›A 97% probability implies only 3% pricing for a spike above 4.00%, requiring a major adverse inflation shock or sudden Fed tightening
- ›Lower-priced contracts (13¢ on 30Y above 5.10%) show minimal tail-risk buying, suggesting traders see limited upside volatility
- ›Implied spread between 2-year (52¢ above 4.00%) and 30-year (97% above 4.00%) suggests curve flattening expectations
- ›PCE inflation report (June 25) and any mid-year Fed commentary are the primary remaining catalysts that could shift positioning before quarter-end
What moved the line
- Jun 19Above 4.30%↓58pp64→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 4.00%↑52pp2→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 4.10%↓36pp83→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 3.80%↑31pp2→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 3.90%↑31pp2→33¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 3d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 4d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 4d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 4d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.