Will Workers' Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Workers' Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing October 4, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $27 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $27 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 2203.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that traders view a Workers' Party Senate victory as extraordinarily unlikely given Brazil's current political landscape. The 4¢ spread and modest 536-day time horizon warrant caution—the cliff risk index of 32 indicates meaningful uncertainty around resolution mechanics or political developments that could dramatically shift probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Workers' Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRAZILSENATE-26OCT04-PT yes 100