Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Your Favorite Toy have at least 40,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Your Favorite Toy?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 3 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Your Favorite Toy have at least 40,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Your Favorite Toy?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 821.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Your Favorite Toy have at least 40,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Your Favorite Toy?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	821.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	50000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Your Favorite Toy have at least 40,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Your Favorite Toy?

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