Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)

30-day trend

Analysis

This market represents the probability that CS Cienciano will lose to Academia Puerto Cabello by more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match. At 32%, the current odds suggest this is viewed as a relatively unlikely outcome, though not negligible. The probability reflects differing team strengths, recent form, and home-field advantage. Factors pushing the probability higher would include Cienciano's defensive vulnerabilities or Academia's recent offensive performance; factors lowering it would be Cienciano establishing control through possession or Academia's defensive lapses. The key catalyst is the scheduled match itself, which will definitively resolve whether Cienciano loses by 2+ goals. The modest trading volume across venues ($31 24-hour volume on the direct contract) and the 3-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggest limited liquidity and some residual disagreement among market participants on the precise probability.

• ›CS Cienciano's current league position, recent goal differential, and away-match performance history versus Academia Puerto Cabello
• ›Academia Puerto Cabello's home-field record and recent offensive output, particularly in matches against stronger opponents
• ›Head-to-head historical results between the two teams and whether either has a pattern of large-margin victories or defeats
• ›Injury status, suspensions, or roster changes for key players on either team that would affect defensive or attacking capability
• ›Market liquidity and contract volume remain low relative to higher-traffic sports betting markets, suggesting limited professional arbitrage activity

What moved the line

• May 3Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)↑10pp13→23¢ · Polymarket
• May 3CS Cienciano (-2.5)↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
• May 3O/U 4.5↓5pp18→13¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Both Teams to Score↑4pp50→54¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

• Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds