Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino - More Markets: O/U 1.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 23% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
17 contracts
Polymarket
23%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
+3pp
13h ago
24h volume
$899
20 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (23¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Nongshim Red Force win” vs “Will Dplus KIA win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Nongshim Red Force win
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY040700NSDK-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060400NSGEN-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 2 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-2-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY060400NSGEN-1-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-1-NS
Cluster 2
Will Dplus KIA win
Will Dplus KIA win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Dplus KIA
KXLOLGAME-26MAY040700NSDK-DK
Will Dplus KIA win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Dplus KIA
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-1-DK
Will Dplus KIA win map 2 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Dplus KIA
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-2-DK
Cluster 3
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-2
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-4
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-1
Cluster 4
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Kashiwa Reysol
0x3481b3…7cd2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Cluster 5
Chapecoense at Mirassol: Totals: Over
Cluster 6
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY060400NSGEN-3
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY040700NSDK-3
Cluster 7
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-RED
Cluster 8
Will Gen.G win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match
Will Gen.G win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Gen.G
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060400NSGEN-GEN
Analysis
This market estimates a 31% probability that the Chapecoense vs. Bragantino match ends with 2 or more total goals scored. The aggregated estimate combines 20 contracts across two venues with a modest 5-percentage-point spread favoring Polymarket. Bragantino has been the stronger team this season, which typically correlates with higher-scoring matches, while Chapecoense's defensive record and recent form would push the probability lower. The match itself—scheduled for a specific date in the coming weeks—will definitively resolve this contract when the final whistle sounds and official goal totals are recorded. Current liquidity remains relatively limited across venues, suggesting limited recent trading activity as resolution approaches.
- ›Bragantino's average goals per match this season versus Chapecoense's defensive record in head-to-head history
- ›Weather conditions, team injuries, and tactical lineup decisions announced in the 24 hours before kickoff
- ›Whether either team is playing for specific standings implications (promotion push, relegation battle, or already-determined position)
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket's historical accuracy on Brazilian football under/over markets and whether the 5pp gap reflects genuine disagreement or data lag
- ›The scheduled match date and any postponements or fixture congestion that could affect team rotation or fatigue levels
What moved the line
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑36pp32→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Nongshim Red Force↑29pp4→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Dplus KIA↑24pp31→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Nongshim Red Force↑16pp4→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.