Will SOFR hit __ in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 31%, Polymarket at 33%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
1 contract
Polymarket
33%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$34K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
198 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 31¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (31¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
Cluster 2
Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027
Analysis
This prediction reflects a 33% probability that SOFR (the Secured Overnight Financing Rate) will reach a specific threshold in April 2026. The forecast is based on expectations about Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic conditions over the coming months. SOFR could rise if inflation remains elevated, forcing the Fed to maintain higher rates longer than currently expected, or fall if the economy weakens and the Fed cuts rates. Conversely, a stronger economic backdrop or faster disinflation could push rates lower. The key uncertainty centers on the Fed's policy decisions in late 2025 and early 2026—particularly whether rate cuts continue as currently anticipated or pause due to inflation persistence. The December 2025 and March 2026 Fed meetings will provide critical signals about the rate environment heading into April.
- ›Current SOFR trading levels and Fed funds futures prices as of June 2026 versus the April target level
- ›Inflation data releases between now and April 2026, especially CPI and PCE readings that signal whether disinflation is on track
- ›Fed meeting outcomes and forward guidance in December 2025 and March 2026, which will shape rate expectations
- ›Market pricing divergence: Polymarket contracts average 33% vs. Kalshi's 31%, suggesting modest disagreement on probability despite small sample size
- ›Historical volatility of SOFR around Fed policy announcements and the gap between current market expectations and the April threshold being tested
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 55,000↑6pp71→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓ 55,000↓5pp77→72¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 50,000↑4pp57→61¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 45,000↑3pp43→46¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in fed rate
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- Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conferencelast 95% · 0d
- Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meetinglast 7% · 0d
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meetinglast 65% · 0d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.