Will SOFR hit __ in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 23%, Polymarket at 27% — a 4pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
2 contracts
Polymarket
27%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
4pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$410K
20 contracts
Top contract
18¢
$129K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 23¢ · Polymarket 27¢ · 4pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (23¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (27¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 80,000
0x6e1fbd…5a55
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
Cluster 2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $150
0xeda0e0…758e
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $175
0x7ae064…f451
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $200
0x5f879a…3281
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80
0xbaf252…d2b5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $140
0x0443a5…dfcb
Cluster 3
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
0xecd961…ad55
Cluster 4
Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027
Cluster 5
Will Kayla Harrison be on the UFC 2026 White House event card
Will Kayla Harrison be on the UFC 2026 White House event card?: Kayla Harrison
KXCARDPRESENCEUFCWH-26JUL04-KHAR
What moved the line
- Apr 29↑ 5,500↓17pp29→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 5,500↑16pp13→29¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↓ 45,000↓9pp39→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?↓9pp28→19¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑ 110,000↓9pp34→25¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in fed rate
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Imminent: Polymarket Surges to 97¢
The Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation by May 15 contract jumped 11¢ to 97¢ today, while Kalshi's version sits at 99¢. With April Fed hold at 100¢ and June also pricing 94¢ no-change, Warsh's arrival signals a potential hawkish shift ahead — a critical development for all rate-sensitive markets.
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Becomes Near-Certainty; Powell Exit Accelerates
The Kevin Warsh confirmation market exploded +55¢ in a single day to reach 84¢ for the May 15 deadline, while the overall 'confirmed as Fed Chair' market sits at 98¢ on Polymarket and 97¢ on Kalshi. Simultaneously, Jerome Powell's exit from the Fed Board itself (not just Chair) is pricing at 50-78¢ range, suggesting a clean break from the Powell era is imminent.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.