Will Tomas Machac win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match by a set score of 2-0
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$470
19 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arthur Fils win the Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils match by a set score of 2
Will Arthur Fils win the Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils match by a set score of 2-1?: Arthur Fils wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09PELFIL-FIL21
Will Arthur Fils win the Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils match by a set score of 2-0?: Arthur Fils wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09PELFIL-FIL20
Cluster 2
Will Daniil Medvedev win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match by a set score of 2
Will Daniil Medvedev win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match by a set score of 2-1?: Daniil Medvedev wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09MACMED-MED21
Will Daniil Medvedev win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match by a set score of 2-0?: Daniil Medvedev wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09MACMED-MED20
Cluster 3
Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win the Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie match by a set score of 2
Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win the Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie match by a set score of 2-1?: Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIRNOR-TIR21
Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win the Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie match by a set score of 2-0?: Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIRNOR-TIR20
Cluster 4
Will Cameron Norrie win the Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie match by a set score of 2
Will Cameron Norrie win the Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie match by a set score of 2-0?: Cameron Norrie wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIRNOR-NOR20
Will Cameron Norrie win the Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie match by a set score of 2-1?: Cameron Norrie wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIRNOR-NOR21
Cluster 5
Will Frances Tiafoe win the Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse match by a set score of 2
Will Frances Tiafoe win the Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse match by a set score of 2-0?: Frances Tiafoe wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIABUS-TIA20
Will Frances Tiafoe win the Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse match by a set score of 2-1?: Frances Tiafoe wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIABUS-TIA21
Cluster 6
Will Ignacio Buse win the Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse match by a set score of 2
Will Ignacio Buse win the Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse match by a set score of 2-1?: Ignacio Buse wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIABUS-BUS21
Will Ignacio Buse win the Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse match by a set score of 2-0?: Ignacio Buse wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09TIABUS-BUS20
Cluster 7
Will Hamad Medjedovic win the Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca match by a set score of 2
Will Hamad Medjedovic win the Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca match by a set score of 2-0?: Hamad Medjedovic wins 2-0
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09MEDFON-MED20
Will Hamad Medjedovic win the Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca match by a set score of 2-1?: Hamad Medjedovic wins 2-1
KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY09MEDFON-MED21
Cluster 8
Will Tomas Machac win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match by a set score of 2-0
Cluster 9
Will Mariano Navone win the Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone match by a set score of 2-0
Cluster 10
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone match by a set score of 2-1
Cluster 11
Will Jannik Sinner win the Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner match by a set score of 2-0
Cluster 12
Will Joao Fonseca win the Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca match by a set score of 2-1
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.