Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
36%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
10h ago
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets” vs “New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1addf0…ac8d
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd165f0…81c8
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-2.5)
0xd08f51…1e15
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x22beac…2bae
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-1.5)
0x00d353…5196
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-1.5)
0x2c1d81…eecf
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-2.5)
0x63f37e…c527
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd68383…5708
Cluster 2
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
Cluster 3
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8a0a7c…9c4e
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x4d7c4d…2b66
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-1.5)
0x1ef468…3cd4
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x53fd8b…a3a0
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-1.5)
0x859e14…c478
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-2.5)
0x870a50…7744
Analysis
This market reflects a 37% probability that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming MLS match. The probability sits in the lower-to-moderate range, suggesting the market views St. Louis City SC as the more likely winner or favors a draw outcome. Austin FC's current form, head-to-head record against St. Louis City SC, home/away advantage considerations, and injury status of key players are the primary factors influencing this probability. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played. Market participants are pricing in historical performance data, seasonal standings, and available team news. The relatively even distribution of probability across multiple related contracts suggests modest confidence in any single outcome, typical for competitive MLS matchups. Volume data shows limited recent trading activity across these contracts, indicating either low current interest or a match scheduled further out.
- ›Austin FC's current MLS season record, win percentage, and points-per-game relative to St. Louis City SC's corresponding metrics
- ›Historical head-to-head record between the teams and performance in similar matchup contexts
- ›Home/away venue advantage and each team's performance split in their respective stadiums during the current season
- ›Confirmed injury status or suspension of starting players for either team, particularly offensive or defensive key performers
- ›Current league standings, goal differential, and recent form (last 5-10 matches) for both teams as of the match date
What moved the line
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Mumbai City FC (-2.5)↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tochigi City FC (-2.5)↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yokohama FC (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yokohama FC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.