Avispa Fukuoka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−7pp
13h ago
24h volume
$11
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC” vs “Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd9e96a…3268
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Avispa Fukuoka
0x805f95…893c
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC)
0xdf82b1…7194
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)
0xf35f62…6fe2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf1423f…1619
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd4cc9a…8cd8
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x35fac1…c35e
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)
0xce2952…4178
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)
0xad3d5f…1797
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8ab58d…9774
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)
0x33b100…116d
Cluster 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
0xc674e6…b72c
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)
0x838893…f108
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x46afc0…7592
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xced570…3f21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa5be96…39c2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)
0x5cd99b…877d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x840caa…6f30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xdfd081…ff31
Analysis
This market represents a 35% probability that additional betting markets will be offered for the Avispa Fukuoka versus Sanfrecce Hiroshima match. The current odds suggest market participants view expanded wagering options as moderately unlikely. The probability reflects typical liquidity patterns for J-League matches—additional markets tend to be offered when initial match interest is high enough to justify the operational cost, but many fixtures receive only baseline market coverage. The resolution depends on whether the bookmaker decides to extend their betting catalog before or during the match. Key drivers include overall betting volume on this particular fixture, competitive positioning between these two teams (which affects projected interest), and the bookmaker's standard market-expansion policies. The outcome will be determined once the match begins or the market deadline passes without additional offerings, providing definitive clarity on whether expanded options were made available.
- ›Current aggregate probability of 35% indicates less than even odds that expanded markets will be offered, suggesting baseline expectation is limited market expansion for this fixture
- ›Related J-League matches show mixed market coverage—the linked Hiroshima vs. Kōbe fixture has zero 24-hour volume on secondary markets, indicating sparse liquidity interest across similar matchups
- ›Sanfrecce Hiroshima appears in multiple contract listings with lower individual prices (23¢ on spread, 55¢ on BTTS), while Avispa Fukuoka prices vary (38¢ spread, 48¢ BTTS), showing asymmetric bookmaker confidence in different match outcomes
- ›All top contracts show $0 24-hour volume, indicating minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect current bookmaker intentions
- ›The resolution date is deterministic—additional markets either exist or do not exist when the match launches, making this a binary outcome with no ambiguity
What moved the line
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)↑14pp12→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 1.5↑7pp62→69¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.