Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club Guabirá
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 49%, Polymarket at 32% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
32%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
19 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 49¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets” vs “CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x491b92…d453
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-2.5)
0xd8cc8e…ab19
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-1.5)
0xaa1d2c…6cde
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3c0f5f…5d9f
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3e4cd1…c9a0
Cluster 2
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xfdd357…99cb
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)
0xbb148b…bc47
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-2.5)
0xe39b53…e126
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
0x404209…0d40
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)
0xa229d8…a31e
Cluster 3
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús
Cluster 4
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 5
Will UCAM Esports Club win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 6
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: Draw
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: Draw (CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia)
0x56b99e…e1d8
Cluster 7
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: CA Rosario Central
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)
0x178a18…e4f2
What moved the line
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↑48pp15→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 2UCAM Esports Club↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Otakar Esports↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 3CA Rosario Central (-2.5)↑4pp19→23¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.