Blaublitz Akita vs. Montedio Yamagata - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma” vs “Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc26872…5101
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma: Montedio Yamagata
0x16f4ac…32bb
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-1.5)
0xa980d1…29b1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xda0ea1…f5e3
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)
0xc6b29b…917b
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf9c843…8a5a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x68f5fb…ba0a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd6d00c…a2e5
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)
0xa5b295…370e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5)
0xf0472b…99af
Cluster 2
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x7b0fa0…94f0
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara: SC Sagamihara
0x091c2c…6a2b
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: SC Sagamihara (-1.5)
0xb700dd…1d5e
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: Blaublitz Akita (-1.5)
0x0a2d11…a06a
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: Blaublitz Akita (-2.5)
0xc9e19c…0bb4
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: SC Sagamihara (-2.5)
0xa862ed…0185
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x78f941…ce45
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xb586da…85d1
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x72dcd3…9505
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf4a1b8…1c5d
Analysis
This 41% probability reflects the chance that Blaublitz Akita will defeat Montedio Yamagata in an upcoming J2 League matchup. The prediction is moderately calibrated based on recent form and head-to-head records between these Japanese second-division clubs. Several factors influence the current level: Blaublitz Akita's recent performance trajectory and home-field advantage in Akita, weighed against Montedio Yamagata's consistency and attacking capability. The match outcome will be determined by actual play on the scheduled date. Key variables include team injury status, recent goal-scoring records, and historical performance in similar conditions. The probability could shift significantly if either team experiences personnel changes or publicly available performance data emerges closer to fixture day.
- ›Blaublitz Akita's recent form in home matches versus overall league performance this season
- ›Montedio Yamagata's defensive record and goal-scoring consistency in away fixtures
- ›Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs with recent weighting
- ›Current league standings and momentum indicators (points in last 5-10 matches)
- ›Confirmed team injuries or roster changes affecting key players for either side
What moved the line
- May 3Thespa Gunma (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata↑3pp44→47¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.