Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026
Leader sits at 78% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alaska
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Wisconsin
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$39
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
242 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Oregon
0xaa1153…7fa1
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: South Carolina
0xa39d80…7dbb
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: New Mexico
0xe7350d…49cf
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Alaska
0xf72aa2…1829
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Wisconsin
0xeb1b76…1ef6
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Washington
0x269b16…c877
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Vermont
0xea35fa…988d
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: South Dakota
0x9748c3…a8e9
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Rhode Island
0x242a95…b23d
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: New Hampshire
0x617036…50b2
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Nebraska
0xad5b9d…c9a4
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Missouri
0xf6eb29…5cf4
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Minnesota
0x40e957…9932
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Massachusetts
0x2e1b5f…8d66
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Maine
0x5a9adf…ca82
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Illinois
0xbcf57b…99ca
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Hawaii
0xbbfe39…68af
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Connecticut
0xdf1a91…2342
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: California
0x9bedf9…39f1
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Alabama
0xa4b15d…ca4e
Analysis
This market estimates which states Donald Trump will visit during 2026, with New Jersey and New York showing the highest probabilities at 93% and 91% respectively. The elevated prices for these northeastern states likely reflect Trump's long-standing residency and business interests in the region, particularly Mar-a-Lago proximity and established political networks. Prices for other states like Oregon (67¢) and New Mexico (58¢) suggest lower expectations for visits to those regions. The main drivers of probability changes would be Trump's campaign schedule for midterm-related events, announced speaking engagements, or shifts in his political priorities. Resolution depends on tracking his actual travel throughout 2026, with the year providing ample time for multiple state visits. Political campaigns, fundraising schedules, and major party events will serve as the primary catalysts determining whether Trump expands his travel beyond his traditional strongholds.
- ›Trump's historical travel patterns show clustering in northeastern states and Florida, with New Jersey and New York as frequent destinations due to residential properties and established networks
- ›Campaign activity timing matters: midterm campaign season peaks in summer and fall 2026, which would likely expand his travel footprint beyond typical patterns
- ›Market pricing suggests high confidence in northeastern visits but uncertainty about visits to less traditionally visited states, indicating incomplete information about his 2026 schedule
- ›Trading volume is minimal on most contracts ($0-$24 24h volume), suggesting limited recent conviction or new information changing probabilities
- ›The outcome resolves based on verifiable travel records, media reports, and campaign announcements throughout 2026, making future schedule releases the primary uncertainty catalyst
What moved the line
- May 3New Mexico↑21pp34→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 1California↑19pp59→78¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Hawaii↓15pp42→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Hawaii↑15pp30→45¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Hawaii↑13pp26→39¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 22 min ago.