Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates which states Donald Trump will visit during 2026, with New Jersey and New York showing the highest probabilities at 93% and 91% respectively. The elevated prices for these northeastern states likely reflect Trump's long-standing residency and business interests in the region, particularly Mar-a-Lago proximity and established political networks. Prices for other states like Oregon (67¢) and New Mexico (58¢) suggest lower expectations for visits to those regions. The main drivers of probability changes would be Trump's campaign schedule for midterm-related events, announced speaking engagements, or shifts in his political priorities. Resolution depends on tracking his actual travel throughout 2026, with the year providing ample time for multiple state visits. Political campaigns, fundraising schedules, and major party events will serve as the primary catalysts determining whether Trump expands his travel beyond his traditional strongholds.

• ›Trump's historical travel patterns show clustering in northeastern states and Florida, with New Jersey and New York as frequent destinations due to residential properties and established networks
• ›Campaign activity timing matters: midterm campaign season peaks in summer and fall 2026, which would likely expand his travel footprint beyond typical patterns
• ›Market pricing suggests high confidence in northeastern visits but uncertainty about visits to less traditionally visited states, indicating incomplete information about his 2026 schedule
• ›Trading volume is minimal on most contracts ($0-$24 24h volume), suggesting limited recent conviction or new information changing probabilities
• ›The outcome resolves based on verifiable travel records, media reports, and campaign announcements throughout 2026, making future schedule releases the primary uncertainty catalyst

What moved the line

• Jun 14Kansas↓10pp48→38¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 14New Hampshire↓10pp54→44¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 14Wyoming↓10pp50→40¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 15Wyoming↓9pp40→31¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 17Kansas↑8pp35→43¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds