Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Blaublitz Akita
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
SC Sagamihara
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara
Analysis
This 41% probability reflects market expectations that SC Sagamihara will win against Blaublitz Akita in an upcoming Japanese football match. The assessment incorporates several market signals: a 41% direct win probability for SC Sagamihara, concurrent over/under markets suggesting low-scoring outcomes (50% of traders expect under 2.5 goals), and a 51% probability both teams score. The probability would shift upward if SC Sagamihara shows strong recent form or if Blaublitz Akita's roster changes. It would move downward if Blaublitz Akita generates offensive momentum or if SC Sagamihara experiences defensive vulnerabilities. The uncertainty will resolve when the match is played, with the outcome determined by standard football rules and official record.
- ›Market assigns 41% win probability to SC Sagamihara versus 38% implied probability for Blaublitz Akita to cover a -1.5 spread, suggesting relatively balanced competitive expectations
- ›Over/Under 2.5 goals market prices at 50% and O/U 4.5 at 33%, indicating trader consensus expects low-scoring match, which constrains win probability variance
- ›Both Teams to Score market at 51% suggests traders expect each team will likely score at least one goal, affecting outcome distribution across win/draw scenarios
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates thin market liquidity and limited price discovery, so current odds may not reflect recent form or team news
- ›Match resolution depends on standard professional football rules and official match records from the organizing league
What moved the line
- May 3Draw (Blaublitz Akita vs. SC Sagamihara)↓8pp35→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.