BNB price up in next 15 mins
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 48%, Polymarket at 26% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
11 contracts
Polymarket
26%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$870
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
242 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 48¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (48¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “What price will BNB hit in 2026” vs “What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price will BNB hit in 2026
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1600
0x928fa1…78b2
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 300
0xdb891d…d56d
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 200
0x1b3b0e…fbb3
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 400
0xef8bd9…ddc9
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 500
0x3d82b5…4857
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1000
0xa0ae2e…e29e
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1400
0x82928a…f5c0
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1500
0x991030…4c63
Cluster 2
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-ACQU
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Social Media
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-SOCI
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Home Sharing
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-HOME
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Headwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-HEAD
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: World Cup
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-WORL
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: China
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-CHIN
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Domestic
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-DOME
What will Airbnb, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Take Rate
KXEARNINGSMENTIONABNB-26MAY07-TAKE
Cluster 3
H100 SXM price up in next week
H100 SXM price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 2.28
KXH100W-26MAY08-2.28
Cluster 4
A100 SXM4 price up in next week
A100 SXM4 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 1.14
KXA100W-26MAY08-1.14
Cluster 5
bnb price on may 3, 2026
BNB price on May 3, 2026?: $525 or above
KXBNBD-26MAY0317-T524.99
What moved the line
- May 2Price to Beat: 2.28↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28↑ 1600↑33pp7→40¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑ 1600↓32pp40→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Take Rate↑30pp46→76¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Take Rate↓26pp72→46¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.