Boston Legacy FC vs. Denver Summit FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
13 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Boston Breach win” vs “Will Paris Gentle Mates win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Boston Breach win
Will Boston Breach win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODGAME-26MAY031800BOSPAR-BOS
Will Boston Breach win map 1 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-1-BOS
Will Boston Breach win map 2 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-2-BOS
Will Boston Breach win map 3 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-3-BOS
Cluster 2
Will Paris Gentle Mates win
Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODGAME-26MAY031800BOSPAR-PAR
Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 2 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-2-PAR
Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 3 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-3-PAR
Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 1 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates
KXCODMAP-26MAY031800BOSPAR-1-PAR
Cluster 3
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Denver Summit FC
KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-DEN
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Tie
KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-TIE
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Boston Legacy FC
KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-BOS
Cluster 4
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
Cluster 5
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
Analysis
This market reflects a 38% probability that Boston Legacy FC will defeat Denver Summit FC in an upcoming match. The probability is anchored by aggregated contract data from two venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher at 39% versus Kalshi's 37%. Boston Legacy FC would need to overcome Denver Summit FC's apparent competitive positioning to win, which investors assess as occurring less than four times out of ten. The narrow 2-percentage-point gap between venues suggests reasonable market consensus, though the relatively low trading volume on the direct matchup contract ($60 in 24-hour volume) indicates limited liquidity and potential for repricing as the event approaches. Key outcomes that could shift the probability include roster changes, recent performance trends, head-to-head historical records, and venue or weather conditions on match day.
- ›Direct matchup contract shows Denver Summit FC at 33 cents on Kalshi, implying ~67% probability for Denver, which contradicts the 38% aggregated Boston probability—suggesting possible data inconsistency or that aggregation includes different event types
- ›24-hour trading volume on the Boston vs. Denver contract is only $60, indicating thin liquidity and susceptibility to repricing with new information
- ›Polymarket prices Denver at 61 cents (39% Boston) while Kalski prices it at 63 cents (37% Boston), showing cross-venue consensus but with notable contract distribution across separate matchups rather than direct head-to-head volume
- ›No scheduled match date or time is specified in available data, making it unclear whether the event is imminent or weeks away—affecting information arrival and probability stability
- ›The market data mixes unrelated contracts (Boston Breach vs. OpTic Texas series) alongside the Boston Legacy vs. Denver Summit query, raising questions about which underlying event drives the aggregated probability
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑18pp28→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 4.5 maps↓14pp17→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Paris Gentle Mates↑13pp54→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.