Boston Legacy FC vs. Denver Summit FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 37%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
7 contracts
Polymarket
37%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
19 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner” vs “Will Boston Breach win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Denver Summit FC
KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-DEN
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Tie
KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-TIE
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Boston Legacy FC
KXNWSLGAME-26MAY03BOSDEN-BOS
Cluster 2
Will Boston Breach win
Cluster 3
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 4
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 6
Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match
Cluster 7
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
Cluster 8
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 9
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Cluster 10
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8c7c03…b8bb
Cluster 11
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 12
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 13
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Boston Legacy FC will win their matchup against Denver Summit FC. The 35% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price Boston's chances at 24%, while Polymarket traders estimate 39%, a 15-percentage-point gap suggesting uncertainty about team strength or upcoming match conditions. The contract volume is notably thin across most markets, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will be determined on the scheduled game date. Factors like recent team performance, roster changes, head-to-head history, and venue conditions would typically influence such estimates, though current market depth is insufficient for high confidence in either direction.
- ›Polymarket prices Boston's win probability 15pp higher than Kalshi, suggesting disagreement on valuation or access to different information sources
- ›The Denver Summit FC winner contract on Kalshi trades at 33¢ (implying ~67% Denver probability), creating apparent inconsistency with the 35% Boston aggregate
- ›Most secondary markets show zero 24-hour volume, indicating thin liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency
- ›Draw probability is explicitly priced at 27¢ on Polymarket, suggesting material tie likelihood that may not be fully reflected in win-only contracts
- ›The Boston Breach unrelated contract has $3,102 daily volume while Boston Legacy contracts show $60 or $0, indicating these teams operate in different liquidity tiers
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑18pp28→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.