Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Botafogo FR
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Racing Club
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Botafogo FR has a 34% chance of winning against Racing Club in an upcoming match. The 12-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests some disagreement about the teams' relative strength, with Kalshi traders pricing in a higher probability for Botafogo. The contract prices indicate this is likely a domestic Brazilian league fixture, where recent form, head-to-head records, and squad availability typically drive outcomes. Resolution will occur on the match date when a winner is determined by final score, barring cancellation or postponement. The relatively thin volume on some related contracts suggests moderate liquidity across venues, which may contribute to the pricing discrepancy.
- ›Kalshi prices Botafogo 12 points higher than Polymarket average, indicating venue-specific disagreement on relative team strength
- ›Recent form and injury status of both teams' key players have not been updated; roster changes would materially affect match outcome
- ›Head-to-head historical record between Botafogo and Racing in their last 5 encounters—typically a strong predictor in domestic league play
- ›Home-field advantage: the venue and whether either team is playing at home could shift win probability by 5-10 points based on typical performance patterns
- ›Contract volumes are relatively modest (highest related volume $74 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction and potential for repricing as match date approaches
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.